Iran and the United States are set to enter a new round of negotiations amid the ongoing American military build-up and Iranian warnings of regional war.

Trump warned that "bad things" could happen if no agreement is reached. Meanwhile, Iran has stated that it will not make concessions on its ballistic missile program, calling that a red line in the negotiations.

On Tuesday, Barak Ravid of Axios reported, quoting an Arab source, that the Trump administration agreed to an Iranian request to move the talks from Turkiyë, and negotiations are ongoing regarding the inclusion of Arab and Islamic countries from the region in the talks in Oman.

A regional official told Reuters on Wednesday that Iran decided to move talks with the United States from Istanbul to the Sultanate of Oman, aiming for these talks to build on previous negotiations held there regarding its nuclear program.

The official, who asked to remain anonymous, said Iran insisted from the outset that it would discuss only its nuclear program in the talks, while Washington seeks to add other issues on the agenda.

He added that Tehran is aware of the invitations extended to regional countries to participate in the talks in Istanbul during the planning process.

High attack probability

The Yediot Ahronot newspaper reported that Israel has provided U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff with intelligence on Iran’s nuclear and missile programs. It quoted an Israeli source saying that “the probability of a U.S. attack on Iran has increased.”

Similarly, the Maariv newspaper noted that “Israel estimates the talks with Iran are unlikely to lead to an agreement preventing a military confrontation, due to the difficulty of imagining the Iranians abandoning their nuclear project, the roughly 400 kilograms of enriched uranium in their possession, or their ballistic missile program and regional influence.”

Bilateral Talks

The U.S. military shot down an Iranian drone that was approaching the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln "aggressively" in the Arabian Sea on Tuesday.

Trump told reporters at the White House, “We are negotiating with them now.” However, he did not provide further details and declined to disclose the expected location of the talks.

A source familiar with the situation mentioned that Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law, is expected to participate in the talks alongside Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.

Ministers from several other countries, including Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt, and the UAE, are expected to attend, but the regional source told Reuters that Tehran currently prefers to hold bilateral talks with Washington.

The reinforcement of U.S. naval forces in the region came after Iran’s violent crackdown on anti-government protests last month, marking the bloodiest internal unrest in the country since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

Trump, who has so far not carried out his threats of military action, has demanded that Iran make concessions on its nuclear file and has sent a U.S. naval flotilla to its shores.

A regional official told Reuters earlier that the priority of diplomatic efforts is to avoid conflict and de-escalate tensions.

Six current and former officials said that the Iranian leadership fears that U.S. strike threats could weaken its grip on power and drive already angry crowds back into the streets.

Sea Confrontations

The U.S. military stated that an F-35 fighter jet shot down an Iranian drone, "Shahed-139," on Tuesday as it was flying toward the "Abraham Lincoln" aircraft carrier, in an action described as "of unclear intention," amid escalating regional tensions.

In another incident on Tuesday in the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. Central Command reported that Iranian Revolutionary Guard forces harassed a U.S.-flagged oil tanker.

In June, the United States launched raids on Iranian nuclear targets, following a 12-day Israeli bombing campaign.

Since then, Tehran has announced that uranium enrichment activities, reportedly for peaceful rather than military purposes, have ceased.

Iranian sources told "Reuters" last week that Trump set three conditions for resuming talks: halting uranium enrichment in Iran, imposing restrictions on Tehran's ballistic missile program, and ending support for regional allies.

Iran has long considered the three U.S. demands to be unacceptable infringements on its sovereignty.

Two Iranian officials told "Reuters" that the country’s religious leadership views the ballistic missile program—not uranium enrichment—as the biggest obstacle.