Despite Iran’s insistence on lifting the American blockade on Iranian ports as a precondition for returning to the negotiating table in Islamabad, a return to war will not be automatic after Sunday. In particular, Tehran, having suffered severe losses on all fronts in the recent war, does not want to return to fighting.

Likewise, President Trump also does not want to return to fighting. Instead, he insists on reaching a historic deal with Iran in order to quickly focus on pressing domestic American commitments during an uncomfortable election year, as the midterm congressional elections are scheduled for November.

These elections are usually very challenging for any president at the end of his second year, as well as for his party.

Deal or delay?

Nevertheless, President Donald Trump is obliged to achieve a deal aligning with the demands of the United States and Israel, whose conditions are well known, or face Iranian stalling, which exploits time to avoid any deal or to settle on a bad one that portrays President Trump and the Republican Party as the defeated side, reflecting on the midterm elections in a few months.

Still, it should be noted that the indirect negotiations via Pakistani intermediaries continue and have not paused for a moment. Thus, claims that negotiations have collapsed are untrue, given that both parties are exchanging ideas and formats for a potential deal, even as the smokescreen surrounding the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and the verbal escalation obscures this ongoing negotiation.

Therefore, the deadline for the ceasefire extension between Washington and Tehran could be extended for a second time before it expires. However, this does not rule out the possibility that we may be surprised soon by a renewed American-Israeli attack on Iran in an attempt to resolve the conflict.

Exploiting time

On the Iranian front, some observers believe that the current Iranian leadership, whether Mojtaba Khamenei is alive or not, is trying to buy more time and avoid reaching a deal with President Donald Trump at this stage, thereby exposing him to greater internal pressures that could weaken his negotiating position.

Conversely, there is an implication through social media platforms and Western media outlets that there is a division within the Iranian leadership regarding negotiation points and the red lines that must be adhered to in exchange for making substantial concessions.

The allegations we are discussing aim to dilute the negotiations by trying to convince Americans that there is a real rift within the Iranian leadership. This is one aspect of playing with time and attempting to exploit it for the regime’s advantage, maintaining the situation between a war that has not ended and a peace that has not yet begun.

One must recall previous trajectories of Iranian policy characterized by poor judgment. Iran’s miscalculations regarding the positions of Washington and Tel Aviv on what they consider a threat posed by the Iranian regime through its nuclear and ballistic programs, as well as its support for armed proxies in the Middle East, prompted Israel to wage war in June 2025 against Iran, followed by the United States in late February of the same year.

All this while the Iranian regime still considers not collapsing in the two wars to be a major victory, despite the enormous losses and military setbacks it suffered, as the American and Israeli forces reportedly dominated Iranian airspace for 45 consecutive days.

Here, we do not discuss the destruction of hundreds of military installations, nor the navy, the air force, and air defense systems. It must be remembered that most of what Iran relies on today is missile power, while its territory and skies remain vulnerable even during the ceasefire period. Practically speaking, one could say the regime is severely exhausted.

Where is Mojtaba Khamenei?

A pressing question remains: Where is Mojtaba Khamenei? Why has no recent photo of him appeared? Why has no one heard his voice instead of circulating written messages read on his behalf? Is he still alive? What is his current health status? More critically, is he dead? In that case, who is leading Iran today?

Some observers even speculate that Mojtaba Khamenei is no longer of this world!