A farmer holding a handful of pistachios in his hand (AFP)

The crisis was not born solely from the war; it was preceded by structural imbalances, most notably:

Weak agricultural cycle integration

The 2025–2026 season has shown weak production in Iran compared with strong output in the United States. This is partly due to the phenomenon of “alternate bearing,” where pistachio trees naturally cycle between a high-yield year and a low-yield year, causing production to fluctuate between abundance and scarcity.

Sanctions on Iran

The war's impact on the production hub

The pistachio production hub in Iran, particularly in Kerman Province—especially the Rafsanjan area—has suffered due to:

• Warehouse destruction near Rafsanjan Airport

• Power outages disrupting irrigation systems, which increased empty nut ratios

• Fuel and labor shortages affecting harvest operations

• Declining quality and rising contamination concerns (aflatoxin), prompting some buyers to shift to alternative sources

Logistical disruption: Strait of Hormuz

Military developments have led to widespread logistical paralysis:

• A naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz has crippled Iranian trade

• Widespread cancellation of shipments to the Middle East

• Significant increases in insurance costs for shipments

• The imposition of “conflict fees” has contributed to rising global prices

Global demand: "Dubai Chocolate" effect

The “Dubai Chocolate” wave contributed to a surge in global pistachio demand:

• Widespread on TikTok and Instagram since 2023, reaching over 120 million views

• Pistachios adopted as a key ingredient in major company products

• Rising pistachio chocolate sales, particularly in the Dubai Duty Free market

• Price increases of about 34% even before the outbreak of the war

• Reshaping of the global production map

Reinforced US Dominance

California farmers benefited from the crisis, with a record crop of 712,000 tons in the 2025–2026 season, leading to:

• Increased global reliance on American pistachios

• Long-term contracts signed with major companies

• High tariffs limiting Iranian competition

Turkey: a winning mediator

Despite a 70% production decline:

• Served as a hub for re-exporting Iranian pistachios

• Redirected local production toward food industries

• Increased agricultural investments in Gaziantep and Şanlıurfa

Spain: Europe’s rise

• Marketing pistachios under European safety standards

• Leveraging geographic proximity to reduce costs

• Developing value-added products such as pistachio paste and cream

Most affected markets

India: Relies on Iran for about 70% of its supply and saw a 26% price increase within a week.

China: Imports fell by 15% due to shipment delays and turned toward American pistachios.

Adaptation strategies

Ultimately, importing countries sought alternative sources, especially from the United States, but supplies remained constrained by long-term contracts. Some countries also attempted to increase production, but the nature of pistachio cultivation, which requires years before yielding, limited a swift response.

In contrast, food companies reconsidered their strategies by raising prices, altering recipes, and using less costly alternatives.

The trajectory of pistachios reveals a deeper shift in the nature of agricultural markets, where prices are no longer determined solely by production and climate factors but are now influenced by geopolitical tensions. With constrained supply and steady demand, “green gold” appears to have entered a new phase of uncertainty.