Hell or Hormuz? Trump’s countdown with Iran

As U.S. pilots are shot down and rescued, the world watches whether diplomacy or war will decide the fate of global oil and Middle East stability.

Samih Saab

Hell or Hormuz? Trump’s countdown with Iran

Wreckage of U.S. F-15 aircraft in central Iran. (AFP)

The Middle East and the world are watching to see if U.S. President Donald Trump will follow through on his threat to “open the gates of hell” on Iran tomorrow if no agreement is reached with the United States or if the Strait of Hormuz is not opened, or if he will extend the deadline again, allowing more time for mediation behind the noise of war.

Any option Trump chooses will be dictated by the dramatic events of the past two days, including Iran shooting down an American F-15 fighter jet, the tense wait in the United States during the search for one pilot who remained missing for two days before the White House announced his rescue, and two American helicopters being hit during search operations in the area where the plane was downed in southwestern Iran. Added to this is the downing of an A-10 plane over the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump presented the rescue of the second pilot as one of the most complex operations in “military memory,” saying it involved American soldiers entering Iran during the search and racing against Iranian Revolutionary Guard patrols in an effort to reach the pilot before Iranian forces did.

The operation to rescue the missing American pilot, 36 hours after his fighter jet was downed, allowed Trump to once again proclaim absolute American air dominance over Iran. This has sparked speculation that the U.S. president might use the momentum from this mission to carry out previous threats to seize Iran's Kharg Island to force Tehran to open the Strait of Hormuz, whose closure has shaken world markets and led to rising gasoline, diesel, and other goods prices in the United States, just months before the midterm elections.

However, the operation that saw two American fighter jets shot down and two helicopters damaged in a single day also implies that a ground option would be fraught with high military and political risks. U.S. officials acknowledge the deep concern they felt over the possibility that Iran could capture the missing pilot and how it might have used that leverage in negotiations to extract concessions from the United States.

Moreover, if the American pilot had been captured, internal pressure on Trump to withdraw from a widely unpopular war would have intensified. Despite the tension of the past two days, Trump is now more than ever under pressure to end the conflict rather than prolong it.

Any escalation after the deadline directed at Iran will aim to inflict greater pressure on the Iranian side, forcing them to choose between accepting an agreement with Washington on Trump’s terms or reopening the Strait of Hormuz for global supply chains. Doing so would lower global oil prices, spare the United States from further inflation ahead of the elections, and avoid the risk of a major Republican defeat in Congress, which would constrain Trump’s actions during the remaining two years of his term.

The wartime developments, initially expected to last only a few days, have shown just how difficult it is to control the timeline of events, their outcomes, or the direction in which they might unfold.

The second American pilot was rescued from capture, sparing Trump additional criticism for rushing into a war without a clear exit strategy. Naturally, the potential capture of the pilot would have shaped the entire course of the conflict, either triggering significant escalation or accelerating efforts to find a resolution.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by the writers are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Annahar.