Many reports discuss the future of As-Suwayda after northeast Syria and the government's move towards military resolution. The latest reports indicated that Damascus, with support from Washington, is working to control Jabal al-Arab, according to what the Israeli Broadcasting Authority reported from a Syrian official, in a scene similar to what happened in areas under Kurdish autonomous administration, aiming to encircle separation projects and Iran’s return to Syria and from there to the Mediterranean shores.

These atmospheres coincided with a visit by a Druze delegation to Washington, including Sheikh Suleiman Abdul Baqi, the commander of the Internal Security Forces in As-Suwayda, giving the delegation an official Syrian character. During this visit, the delegation held meetings with members of Congress and Pentagon officials, according to a previous report by Annahar, with the conclusion reaffirming the unity of Syrian territory and rejection of separation projects.

However, multiple sources converge on excluding the Syrian government's direction towards military resolution in As-Suwayda as happened in the northeast, based on several factors, primarily the Israeli influence in southern Syria and Tel Aviv's rejection of Damascus and its forces entering its national security surroundings, threatening strong intervention if that occurs. The consensus goes further to say that the only solution lies in a Syrian-Israeli agreement.

Will the northern scene be repeated?
A Druze source familiar with As-Suwayda excludes the existence of an 'Israeli green light' for a military determination in the Druze governorate and does not see an impending military confrontation, as the ground reality remains the same with no exceptional mobilization by the Syrian army. The source addresses the American position, indicating that it has not changed and has been government-supportive and still is, but 'the basis is the Israeli stance.'

The American support for the government and the Israeli stance rejecting Syrian authority in southern Syria are not contradictory but fall under the framework of role distribution between Tel Aviv and Washington, pending an Israeli-Syrian security agreement. The Druze source tells Annahar that resolving the As-Suwayda file is 'strongly tied' to this agreement, as Israel is the deciding party in the south, but it does not want an agreement at present.

Multiple meetings were held between Syria and Israel to try to arrange security understandings, the latest of which was in France a few weeks ago, but they have yet to reach a result. There are reports of a potential new meeting soon, but the belief in Israel's lack of desire to reach an agreement stems from Israel's ability to establish geostrategic equations with the force of fire and its wish to achieve more gains before reaching any agreement that would relatively limit its movement.

Changes in reality
Although Sheikh Hikmat al-Hijri's escalatory stance dominates the scene, the reality inside As-Suwayda is relatively changing. In his latest statements to 'Yedioth Ahronoth,' al-Hijri reiterated the talk of 'complete independence,' but the Druze source says that the Druze 'have realized through experience' that there is no capability to gain independence and establish a Druze state, pending a political solution that might be decentralized or federal.

In conclusion, replicating the northeastern scene and repeating it in southern Syria is currently unlikely, and according to estimates, the Syrian authorities prefer political understandings with Israel and As-Suwayda to avoid escalation with Israel on one hand and prevent deepening the rift with the Druze on the other. Hence, the focus is on the Syria-Israel meetings and their outcomes under American auspices.

Druze flag (AFP).