It will not be possible to make a conclusive judgment, as all those supporting the negotiated option, which the Lebanese state was forced to embark upon despite its difficult path, hope that the stages of slow breakthroughs or arduous progress in the Lebanese Israeli negotiations under the sponsorship of the American godfather will ensure the prevention of crazy adventures. The opposing camp, specifically Hezbollah, has a dark history, weighed down by its approach and previous precedents of committing similar actions, even if it had already realized that they could ultimately lead to a disastrous outcome for it.

Nevertheless, the striking paradox that will help Lebanon move forward with this option, despite its coercive nature, is the paradox of the distribution of the three negotiating parties’ interests around the Lebanese track, in pushing for accelerated steps toward breakthroughs that may acquire a surprising character in terms of their speed in the coming weeks and few months.

Until the sixth and latest round of the Lebanese Israeli American trilateral negotiations held in Rome, the nature of the negotiations and their outcomes had been extremely burdensome for Lebanon due to the implicit objective convergence between the intertwined goals of both Israel and Iran, through the “mediation” of its local field proxy, Hezbollah. Israel’s hardline stance in the village clearing operations, at least, and its insistence on the concept of extending the security zone to far reaching areas north of the Litani River continued to weaken the Lebanese negotiator in the face of the intimidating escalation by Hezbollah and the small number of its allies, even though the course of time had changed and the domestic majority supporting the state had become the most important and strongest shield protecting the negotiating option from any external factor or foreign support.

Likewise, Iran, weakened as it faced an internal explosion, was once again taking the risk of challenging Donald Trump, who stands on the brink of merciless domestic challenges and is pushing once again to show the image of the invincible global emperor. It was rubbing its hands with satisfaction whenever the crown jewel of its proxies in the region, Hezbollah, would tell it, with the arrogance of the fading era to which it had become accustomed, that the time for bringing down the June 26, 2026 agreement, just like its older brother that collapsed more than four decades ago, namely the May 17, 1983 agreement, had become close to implementation, which would revive that stillborn memorandum between the United States and Iran.

Therefore, the push provided by President Trump, who has begun signaling strong pressure for Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanon and Syria, can be considered, along with other circumstances and factors, as having created a convergence of interests between Lebanon, Israel, and the United States to seize the decisive timing before it is too late, through a diplomatic and field breakthrough on the Lebanese track. This would launch the phase connected to what has been called the experimental zones in southern Lebanon, through the deployment of the Lebanese army in areas divided between Israeli occupation or areas under Israeli fire control and areas under the control of Hezbollah’s weapons.

The coming days will therefore acquire decisive importance in pushing the Lebanese negotiating track to become, first and foremost, the most dangerous and urgent card for the Lebanese state, so that it can give its choice full credibility in proving the validity of its bet and coordination with the American godfather, achieving the first Israeli withdrawal from occupied territories and the army’s control over them and over other villages from which the dominance of Hezbollah’s weapons will be removed.