After the assassination of the former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and a group of senior leaders during the previous war, the Iranian regime did not change and did not learn from the lessons of the war, its lead up, or its consequences. Its positions, policies, and external security behavior drew it into a very harsh US-Israeli war.

During the war, it made further strategic mistakes by targeting most of the Arab neighboring countries, which settled the deep hostility that neighboring Arab states feel toward a regime whose continued existence represents an existential threat to them.

During the negotiation phase, the regime acted as if it had achieved a clear victory and inflicted a historic defeat on the United States and Israel. Now, the consequences of believing the illusions and myths of victory are reviving a new state of war, although, for the time being, it remains containable before a major explosion occurs.

Like Iran, its local proxy in Lebanon, Hezbollah, is acting as if it has won two wars against Israel. It pays no attention to the realities on the ground: most of its leadership was killed, including Hassan Nasrallah, thousands of its members were killed, large areas of southern Lebanon were occupied, hundreds of thousands of people from the party’s support base were massively displaced, and finally, but not least, villages, towns, and cities were destroyed and wiped out either partially or completely. The cost is extremely high, while Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Qassem is promising to become involved once again in a support war for Iran if a war breaks out between Iran and the United States.

Hezbollah, like Iran, does not learn from painful experiences. It works hard to justify its mistakes or wrongdoings and repeat them, while misleading its deceived audience into believing that it is achieving victories. It is moving steadily toward a new catastrophe, especially as its officials, such as Lebanese Parliament member Ali Ammar, are promising to stand behind Iran if war breaks out.

This means that the party is preparing for a new round of fighting, openly declaring that Tehran’s decisions are what matter to it and that it will implement them without question. Meanwhile, the Lebanese state has reached a framework agreement with Israel under US sponsorship, which, if the Lebanese state fulfills its commitments, would lead to the withdrawal of the Israeli army from all occupied Lebanese territories.

In this sense, the Lebanese army is responsible for translating the commitments of the state, meaning the legitimate authority, into actions aimed at extending its sovereignty over all Lebanese territory. This is a major national mission.

Therefore, it is extremely important that the army’s activities and the improvement of its effectiveness in terms of actual deployment and the extension of state sovereignty be accompanied by support from the countries sponsoring Lebanon, whether Arab or foreign. The more the army’s capabilities improve and the more effectively it expands its deployment, the less possible it will be for the Israelis to remain in the south or in any other area. What is important is that the Americans ensure that the Lebanese state does not place any restrictions on the deployment of its own army throughout Lebanon. No areas or positions, such as Ali al Taher Hill, should be off limits to the Lebanese army.

We say that if these areas are not handed over to the army, and if Hezbollah becomes involved in a new war to support Iran, they will be invaded. These are assessments made by senior Lebanese army officers, who are convinced that the party will drag Lebanon into a third war with Israel. They expect a full invasion of the area stretching from Ali al Taher Hill to the city of Nabatieh. These officers had hoped that the party would adopt a policy of limiting losses. However, it appears that the decision makers in Tehran do not take Lebanese considerations or the country’s interests into account. It is likely that Hezbollah will drag Lebanon into a situation that could develop from reciprocal strikes into a full-scale war similar to the previous war that erupted on February 28 of this year.

The problem is that Hezbollah does not learn from its mistakes and wrongdoings. It continues to repeat them time and again. Therefore, Lebanon will remain a hostage in the hands of the Iranian regime. We believe that nothing will change in the region until we reach the moment of truth.

Just as Lebanon will remain a hostage in the hands of the Iranian regime, Iraq will remain so as well, and the security of the Arabian Gulf will remain unstable. Meanwhile, the security of energy supplies will become a reason for imposing protection fees on the countries of the region and on global trade passing through the Strait of Hormuz. We cannot rule out the possibility that Iran will once again move quickly to threaten maritime navigation in the Bab al Mandab Strait, especially since the threat posed by the Houthi group remains present as long as the regime exists.

The region will not calm down until a profound change takes place that turns the situation upside down. There will be no return to revitalizing development programs in the region before the threat posed by the Iranian regime disappears. For all these reasons, we say that ending this abnormal situation is a general and comprehensive interest for the entire region.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by the writers are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Annahar.