The French judiciary is set to announce on Tuesday its decision on an appeal filed by France’s far-right leader, Marine Le Pen, against her conviction for embezzling European Parliament funds—a ruling that could have major implications for the 2027 presidential election.

On March 31, 2025, the trial court found Le Pen guilty of orchestrating a "scheme" between 2004 and 2016 to divert funds allocated by the European Parliament for parliamentary assistants, using them to pay staff who worked for her party instead of carrying out duties in Brussels and Strasbourg.

She was sentenced to four years in prison, including two under house arrest with an electronic bracelet, and banned from holding public office for five years, effectively preventing her from running in the next presidential election.

The Paris Court of Appeal is expected to begin reading its ruling at 13:30 local time (11:30 GMT), a process that can sometimes take several hours.

Le Pen, 57, has denounced her conviction as a "political" decision by the judiciary.

Marine Le Pen. (AFP)

As the leader of the National Rally, which currently tops opinion polls to succeed Emmanuel Macron, Le Pen's appeal ruling is being closely watched, as it could determine whether she is able to make a fourth bid for the presidency.

If the five-year ban from public office is upheld—or reduced to more than two years—Le Pen will be unable to run. That would likely clear the way for Jordan Bardella, 30, who has led the National Rally since 2021, to become the party's presidential candidate.

Bardella said on Monday that the party is prepared "for all scenarios," adding that he is "calm and ready to bear the consequences" of the Court of Appeal's decision.

Le Pen is scheduled to announce her final decision on whether she will run during the 8 p.m. news bulletin on TF1 on Tuesday (19:00 GMT).

Le Pen was defeated by Macron in the second round of the 2017 and 2022 presidential elections, after being eliminated in the first round in 2012, when François Hollande won the presidency.

However, the daughter of the late Jean-Marie Le Pen—the historic leader of the French far right and founder of the National Front, later renamed the National Rally—appears to hold a stronger position this time.

Opinion polls suggest Le Pen could lead the first round of the 2027 presidential election, scheduled for April 18, while forecasts for the decisive second round on May 2 remain mixed. At least one poll found she would win the presidency regardless of her opponent in the runoff.

If the Court of Appeal reduces her period of ineligibility to two years or less, Le Pen could theoretically run, as the ban is calculated from the date of her conviction on March 31, 2025.