Europe and extreme heat: Climate change as a geopolitical and economic stress test
As heatwaves intensify across the continent, climate change is no longer just an environmental crisis but a force reshaping Europe’s economy, infrastructure, and geopolitical stability.
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Climate change previously contributed to easing some European tensions. Between the 9th and 13th centuries, Europe experienced more moderate temperatures that helped boost agricultural yields and, along with other factors, reduced Viking raids in the north.
The current climate change, however, cannot be given optimistic outcomes. The worst aspect of the current European heatwave is not only its scorching temperatures, but the possibility that it could become Europe’s typical summer in the future.
“Heatwaves are here to stay until we turn off the global emissions tap,” says Samantha Burgess from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. She adds that heatwaves have become “more frequent, more intense, and longer-lasting.”
As a reminder, this is the second intense heatwave to hit Europe in just two months, while the Northern Hemisphere has barely entered the summer season.
Europe and the heatwave in numbers
In Italy, farmers are worried about drought after the water level of the “Po” River dropped very early. Speaking of rivers, two nuclear reactors were shut down in France due to water shortages. The country also recorded at least 74 drowning deaths by Friday, as people tried to cool themselves down, while four children died inside closed cars. In Spain, 300 heat-related deaths were recorded last week.
In Denmark, temperatures reached 37°C in the city of Aarhus on Saturday, the highest level recorded in the country in 150 years. There is no doubt that Aarhus has temporarily lost its reputation as the “city of smiles.” In Slovakia, heat records were also broken on Friday, as nighttime temperatures did not drop below 26.3°C. On Saturday, Germany also broke a previous record, with temperatures reaching 41.5°C in the north-central part of the country.
In short, Western Europe has been suffering under what scientists describe as a “heat dome,” with temperatures about 8°C higher than average for this time of year. On Friday, a group of scientists from the “World Weather Attribution” initiative concluded that climate change is responsible for the current heatwave, noting that such an event would have been “practically impossible” 50 years ago.
Europe and the financial costs of climate change
A new study published in the journal Nature Climate Change shows that Europe could face an annual bill of one billion euros due to damage to roads and railways caused by coastal flooding if temperatures rise by 1.5°C compared to pre-industrial levels. There is also a serious risk that the planet could irreversibly cross this temperature threshold.
The insurance company “Allianz Trade” conducted a stress test in which it applied the five hottest years between 2014 and 2024 to the coming years up to 2030. The results showed that France would incur total losses of $240 billion, while Germany and Italy would face losses of $131 billion and $147 billion respectively.
Although Europe has resources to help it adapt to global warming, the problem is that it is the fastest-warming continent due to its proximity to the Arctic. Two main factors explain this: the retreat of ice cover, which reflects more sunlight than normal soil, and the formation of fresh water from melting ice, which stores heat more quickly than saltwater.
More severe costs
In 2003, around 70,000 heat-related deaths were recorded in Europe. In 2023, about 50,000 similar cases were recorded. Considering the steady rise in temperatures, Europe is adapting to warming, albeit slowly. However, as The Economist wrote, Europe needs to reduce climate risk rather than merely keep up with it.
Find out more about Europe’s heatwaves below: