It can be said that a new nuclear agreement between the United States and Iran is on the way. U.S. President Donald Trump is tired of continuing the war and bearing the economic costs associated with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, so he extended a peace branch to Iran. Likewise, the Iranians need funds for reconstruction, so they accepted the American offer. Who can blame them for accepting a generous proposal that grants them billions in exchange for their repeated promise not to seek nuclear weapons?

However, on Sunday, two separate issues emerged.

The first was what some viewed as a protocol slight by the Iranian delegation in Switzerland toward the American delegation, as they did not shake hands upon entering the resort. This coincided with a larger issue: Trump’s threat to Iran, including the resumption of bombing, if it does not stop its “proxies in Lebanon” from “causing problems.”

On Monday, news from Switzerland was encouraging for both countries. Nevertheless, Trump surprised the Iranians. After rushing to conclude an agreement, he escalated his rhetoric, even if only temporarily. This is the crux of the matter.

Trump's Concern

Trump is likely asking himself one question: how will the American voter react to an understanding with Iran? Ultimately, Trump stopped the war to preserve his domestic popularity ahead of the midterm elections. But what if Americans conclude that he is heading toward a bad deal with Iran?

A speedboat passes anchored cargo ships in the Strait of Hormuz, June 17, 2026. (AP)

There is a common belief that the American public is weary of foreign wars. Yet there is a flaw in that assumption. Americans tend to give their leaders a grace period during wartime as long as they remain confident in their strategy. In 2004, Americans re-elected President George W. Bush despite the troubled invasion of Iraq because they preferred him over Democratic candidate John Kerry, whose position on the war was viewed as inconsistent. Nothing better illustrates Trump’s concern than his rush on Friday to publicize a Quantas Insights poll of 1,000 potential voters conducted on June 16–17, which found that 56 percent supported the memorandum of understanding. Without a doubt, he was monitoring other polls with caution and discretion.

Trump Facing Republicans

A recent poll conducted by the Associated Press in cooperation with NORC between June 11 and 17 found that 65 percent of respondents disapproved of Trump’s handling of the issue. Among Republicans, 37 percent said Trump’s war against Iran did not go far enough, while 42 percent said it was sufficient. Trump’s decision to stop the war may appear justified, but media scrutiny and legislative pressure from Congress are still in their early stages. As a result, the situation could deteriorate further for the president.

Image of the White House, July 2025. (AP)

A CBS News and YouGov poll conducted between June 17 and 19 found that 40 percent of Republicans support further escalation against Iran and believe the regime’s survival is unacceptable. Notably, the MAGA base appears more hardline on Iran than other factions within the Republican Party. More broadly, respondents were evenly divided on whether the Iranian regime’s survival after the war is acceptable.

Will Iran “Understand”?

Trump has a serious problem. It appears that he has lost support among independents while also generating unease within Republican ranks. As a result, his rhetorical escalation seems intended to reinforce the perception that he emerged victorious from the war and remains firmly in control. 

For this reason, American public opinion could play a significant role in disrupting the path toward a settlement. It remains unclear whether Tehran fully understands Trump’s domestic political situation, particularly given that it, too, must address a broad Iranian audience and strengthen its own image.