Lebanon at the mercy of regional deals and illusions

Opinion 19-06-2026 | 11:40

Lebanon at the mercy of regional deals and illusions

From Washington to Tehran and beyond, overlapping strategies and contradictory signals leave Lebanon exposed to competing agendas and recurring instability.

Lebanon at the mercy of regional deals and illusions
An Israeli Merkava tank passes alongside destroyed buildings in southern Lebanon on 17 June 2026. (AFP)
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No supremacist power, no matter how elevated it may claim to be, can erase, obscure, or relegate to the background the image of the most devastating destruction and the widest-scale ruin ever witnessed in a region in the history of the Lebanese wars, as is becoming evident in the unfolding scene of southern Lebanon, much of which has turned into a massive Stalingrad-like landscape reminiscent of the aftermath of World War II, from Nabatieh to the border with Israel.

 

No matter how far Hezbollah has gone in celebrating the astonishing “concession” presented by the US President and Vice President to Iran after a fierce war in which the entire world is asking why it happened if its outcome was ultimately to rehabilitate the Iranian Revolutionary Guard system, the party can no longer evade the historical consequences of a catastrophe that has struck its base of support, its areas of influence, and Lebanon as a whole, in a way that cannot be domestically spun as any claim of victory.

 

This aspect is a fact that must be established in any approach to the Lebanese reality after the signing of the US Iranian memorandum of understanding, in order to automatically put an end to delusional demagoguery that Iran and the party’s supporters continue to promote through the voices of its leaders and its close media outlets, without accounting for the coming direct consequences on hundreds of thousands of victims in Iran’s support war, in destruction that would make reconstruction and rebuilding impossible before a decade passes.

 

Nevertheless, the other side of the emerging Lebanese scene, since the maneuvers of manipulating and exploiting Lebanon began as if it were the crown jewel in the understanding born between Trump and Iran, provokes among Lebanese who are free from the grip of demagogic media, regardless of their political positions, feelings that go beyond doubt and suspicion regarding what the US Iranian agreement conceals in terms of dangerous repercussions.

 

These may be repercussions that are perhaps the most dangerous in the history of regional international deals made at Lebanon’s expense, similar to the previous US acceptance of Syrian tutelage, and comparable to the current abandonment of Iran’s arms and proxies, foremost among them Hezbollah, without deterrence and without guarantees regarding the continuation of their funding and the fueling of their armed dominance with billions that will flow into Iran through the generosity of the Trump administration.

 

There is no need to delve into the behavior of the so-called resistance camp, where it is futile to expect any revision in the face of the horrors created by their own hands in sacrifice to Iranian allegiance. However, what is alarming is that Lebanon may be besieged by a counter demagoguery, even if in different forms, embodied in the astonishing duality of the US President’s stance toward Lebanon.

 

In the “manifestations” of three days in the French city of Évian, during which he even “led” the G7 summit, we almost came to believe that Lebanon had suddenly been placed on the list of US national security priorities, given how much Trump insisted on repeatedly invoking and recalling it, alongside his attempts to polish his “national” achievement that transcends continents in rehabilitating the Iranian system and “compensating” it for his war on Iran.

 

Lebanese, Syrians, and certainly Israelis were left puzzled in trying to decipher the riddle of this emerging equation and its enigmas, which reproach Israel for failing to eliminate Hezbollah, and encourage Ahmad al-Sharaa to emulate his worst predecessor and his worst experiences in invading and occupying Lebanon, pushing him into direct confrontation with Hezbollah in a free recipe for Sunni-Shiite strife. It also deals a crushing blow to the morale of Lebanon’s sovereign legitimacy by suggesting that it is among the weakest of God’s creations.

 

This triple formula, the strangest in the “policy” of an administration overseeing a direct negotiating process between Lebanon and Israel, appeared as an open and brazen invitation to hand Lebanon over to an additional, catastrophic, and chaotic fate within a regional vice grip that allows Iran, Israel, and Syria alike to manipulate Lebanon’s destiny.

 

Nevertheless, President Joseph Aoun has now, after a long wait, become among the guests invited to the White House. Perhaps he will bring back to the Lebanese upon his return a formula for solving these enigmas.

 

 

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by the writers are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Annahar.