At around ten o’clock in the evening local time, the Israeli Channel 14 reported, citing sources, that Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Ahmad Vahidi is the final decision maker in any agreement with the Americans, and that he has agreed not to oppose the agreement, despite not explicitly supporting it.

He sees it as having strategic value in easing sanctions and increasing oil and gas exports. The report appears to be accurate. However, the point of disagreement emerges elsewhere, according to the same channel: while the political leadership views the agreement as a pathway to economic stability, Vahidi believes that Iran can take the money without abandoning its nuclear program. And he may not, in the end, be wrong.

The Revolutionary Guard and the transitional period

The Revolutionary Guard understands that the United States President Donald Trump’s inclination toward de-escalation has become far stronger than any tendency he may have to restart the war. This has given Iran significant room for maneuver.

If the war is now behind Trump, then why continue escalating in the Strait of Hormuz, deprive Iran of funds, and risk damaging oil fields due to a prolonged shutdown?

Ahmad Vahidi when he was Minister of the Interior, 2024. (AP)

In other words, the two-month period allocated to discussing the technical details of the nuclear issue is a transitional phase during which the United States is preparing to close the chapter of war. Trump can claim that he will strike Iran again “with unprecedented force,” or use any of his preferred exaggerated phrases, in the event that the agreement fails.

But this possibility has now become unlikely. The more probable scenario, if negotiations break down, is an extension of the timeline, which would further confirm the avoidance of any return to military action.

In the meantime, Iran will return to selling its oil and receiving around 400 million dollars per day. This is without even mentioning the possibility of obtaining around 25 billion dollars in frozen funds, according to Iranian officials.

What if the Revolutionary Guard provokes Donald Trump?

After the nuclear negotiation period is exhausted, Trump will have lost a great deal of time and patience to the point where he would be inclined to resume the war, especially as the United States enters the midterm election phase.

Most likely, Trump will be satisfied with whatever his negotiators reach with Iran. Until then, he will have shifted his focus to other issues he believes will be easier to manage, such as Cuba. But what if Iran diplomatically corners Trump?

Cargo ships and oil tankers docked at the Strait of Hormuz, May 4, 2026. (AP)

Most likely, Trump will not have many options. Iran will again threaten to close the Strait of Hormuz, and the US administration will once more threaten to impose a blockade in response. This would reset the situation to square one. Trump would then have to wait longer for the effects of the new blockade to take hold, since Iran would be in a stronger position thanks to its oil trade.

Sensitive points for the Revolutionary Guard

None of this means that the situation inside Iran is easy. There are reports of internal disagreements over how the negotiations should be managed. These disagreements could intensify in the coming period if Vahidi continues to insist on not making nuclear concessions.

There are also sensitive issues for the Revolutionary Guard. Would Iran offer a verbal concession by confirming that it will not develop or acquire nuclear weapons? The Guard may prefer to keep the issue within the framework of “strategic ambiguity.” And would Iran give up its “right to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes”? This point is more controversial.

What is certain is that the Revolutionary Guard is scoring points in its game with Trump, driven by his unpredictability. But maintaining those gains is also a difficult task.