Global markets surge after US–Iran peace deal triggers sharp drop in oil and dollar
Financial markets rally across stocks, bonds, currencies, crypto, and commodities as easing geopolitical tensions and falling energy prices fuel expectations of softer inflation and slower monetary tightening.
The United States’ recent achievement of a peace agreement with Iran has led to a broad improvement in risk appetite across financial markets.
Attention is now focused on the details of how the agreement will be implemented, how quickly oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz will resume, and whether the parties can reach a broader settlement on the Iranian nuclear file.
The announcement of the agreement also triggered a strong rally in global stock and bond markets, while oil and the US dollar declined, as investors reassessed the risks of a war that had disrupted one of the world’s most important energy corridors for months.
Oil declines
Oil futures fell, with Brent crude dropping about 4.7% to 83.24 dollars per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 5.5% to 80.16 dollars per barrel, after US and Iranian officials confirmed they had reached a framework agreement to end the war, which would lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the resumption of shipping through it.
Brent crude had previously reached a peak of 126.41 dollars per barrel during the crisis, while the closure of the strait for more than three months deprived global markets of millions of barrels of oil and gas. Before the war, nearly one fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies passed through the strait.
US President Donald Trump said the agreement includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz, while Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, whose country played a mediating role, announced that the United States and Iran will sign a memorandum of understanding in Switzerland on Friday.
In contrast, Iran indicated that shipping through the strait would be regulated in coordination with Oman. The semiofficial Iranian Mehr News Agency also reported that the draft agreement stipulates reopening the strait within 30 days under Iranian arrangements.
Despite the broad market optimism, some details remain unclear, particularly those related to freedom of commercial shipping and the future mechanisms for managing the strait.
Sean Callow, senior currency analyst at ITC Markets, said that the lack of details regarding maritime shipping freedom raises some questions, but it does not appear sufficient to curb the current wave of risk taking in markets.
He added that the likelihood of continued lower energy prices is shifting the discussion for central banks ahead of a series of monetary policy meetings this week.