West Africa’s security crisis in Mali: Jihadist advances, regional rivalries, and great power competition
As militant groups expand their foothold in northern Mali, Maghreb divisions and external rivalries deepen uncertainty over the region’s security future.
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The “Syrian scenario” seems distant in Mali, as this organization has not shown any revision of its strict approach to the application of Sharia or any willingness to abandon extortion and kidnapping as a means of financing. It is unlikely that its pragmatic relations with the Azawad separatists will soften its harsh methods.
Although the “Azawad Liberation Front” has a secular separatist background, its alliance with the jihadists last year was based on the application of Sharia in areas under its control. There is little basis for optimism among some analysts that Azawad’s control over vast areas in northern Mali will create a buffer zone preventing jihadist penetration to the north.
Relations with regional actors
Complicating matters is the difficulty of coordination among Maghreb countries due to differing policies toward Mali. While Morocco maintains good relations with Bamako, relations between Algeria and the Malian authorities are marked by significant tension.
Despite Morocco and Algeria issuing similar statements condemning the threats of terrorism and separatism and supporting Mali’s territorial integrity, the shadow of the Western Sahara conflict continues to influence their respective positions toward Bamako, which recently withdrew its recognition of the Polisario, aligning itself with Rabat.
The scene is further clouded by doubts about Moscow’s ability to protect the Bamako regime. Its “African Corps” has lost much of its credibility due to repeated withdrawals from battles, even if these are justified by its support for Ukraine and its training of rebels.
Meanwhile, the West’s room for maneuver appears limited, even as Washington intensifies its military cooperation with Maghreb countries to prevent the spread of instability from West Africa and to contain Russian and Chinese competition.
It is unlikely that power rivalry will help resolve the West African crises, in the absence of unified positions among Maghreb countries, despite the fact that what is unfolding on the fringes of the desert is part of their national security.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by the writers are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Annahar.