Amid the world’s focus on the escalation with Iran, the United States has been quietly moving to reshape its influence over vital maritime routes in an effort to encircle China and reduce its influence ahead of the proposed summit between Chinese President Xi Jinping and American President Donald Trump in May.

Instead of merely reacting to crises, the Trump-led American administration has adopted a proactive approach aimed at securing control over the main choke points through which global trade and energy supplies pass.

In a relatively short period, the United States managed to solidify its presence at four critical maritime points, using diverse tools ranging from diplomacy to pressure and force. The result is a new global maritime order that clearly tilts toward American dominance.

This strategy began with the Panama Canal, one of the most important links between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Through a mix of political pressure and diplomatic understandings, Washington succeeded in reducing Chinese influence, benefiting from internal judicial decisions in Panama that ended the privileges of a Chinese company managing key ports.

This shift allowed the U.S. to enhance its presence without direct military intervention while ensuring greater naval movement facilities.

Conversely, Washington adopted a stricter approach in the Strait of Hormuz, where it resorted to selective maritime blockades targeting Iranian ships, limiting Tehran’s ability to export oil. This move reconfigured the balance of power in the region and prompted Iran to show relative flexibility in negotiations.

In the Strait of Malacca, the Trump administration shifted its focus to Southeast Asia, relying on a partnership with Indonesia. A defense agreement between the two parties on April 13 granted Washington the right to fly over Indonesian airspace, providing a permanent capability to monitor one of the world’s most important trade routes, especially for China. It is one of the primary routes through which about 80% of China’s oil imports and about 40% of global trade pass.

In the Strait of Gibraltar, Washington enhanced its cooperation with Morocco through a long-term agreement signed on April 16, covering military and intelligence fields, benefiting from its strategic geographic location at the Mediterranean’s entrance.

The head of the "Silk Road Institute for Studies and Research" in Lebanon, Waref Kumayha, tells "Annahar" that "American influence in vital maritime routes can be seen as a notable but not decisive tool against China," adding that "the American presence extending from the Panama Canal to the Malacca Strait, Hormuz, and Gibraltar clearly gives it the ability to influence the global trade arteries that Beijing heavily relies on."

He believes that “this influence does not reach the level of economic strangulation but rather falls under what can be described as strategic nuisance: an environment of risks and uncertainty that increases costs and limits maneuverability without paralyzing the economy. These passages, by their international nature and geopolitical complexities, cannot be monopolized or used absolutely without retaliatory costs on everyone.”

He emphasizes that “China views these passages as factors subject to disruption and needs precautions, which gradually drives it to diversify its routes and enhance its maritime presence, parallel to major projects like the Belt and Road Initiative aimed at reducing dependence on choke points.”

Politically, Kumayha sees this reality as “directly reflecting on the anticipated summit between President Xi and Trump. This timing makes the maritime route file present in the background of the meeting as a real pressure factor, even if not explicitly on the agenda,” noting that “Beijing will enter the summit from the stance of risk management and maintaining the stability of trade flows, not responding to pressure, while Washington realizes that leveraging its maritime cards to the fullest could backfire on the global economy during a sensitive international moment.”

China as a strategic rival

Researcher in political economy Dr. Mohamed Moussa tells "Annahar" that the United States has viewed China, especially with Trump’s return, as a strategic rival for years. He points out that Washington has adopted a gradual pressure policy in an attempt to constrain Chinese influence.

But Moussa notes that these routes, despite their vital importance to China, are not under complete American control. The United States has extensive military and political influence, but it does not hold the final decision, particularly since these straits are governed by international laws and agreements preventing their closure or use as a direct economic chokehold.

He warns that any American attempt to obstruct these passages would have negative repercussions on the global economy, including the United States itself. Disrupting trade flow would lead to rising prices and inflation, and would disrupt supply chains that Washington and its allies rely on, making such a move akin to “shooting oneself in the foot.”

As for the upcoming summit between Trump and the Chinese president, Moussa doubts the straits issue will be used as a direct pressure tool. Trump, described as a “deal-maker,” understands that any successful agreement must be based on a “win-win” principle, and that China is not a party that can be easily extorted. The intertwined economic interests, with trade exceeding 600 billion dollars, also impose a delicate balance in the relationship.

He concludes that the maritime route card may be used indirectly as a negotiation tool, more for showcasing power than a blatant threat, to avoid escalation that harms both parties.

Therefore, the forthcoming summit could become a pivotal moment, but within precise calculations governed by shared interests and sensitive international balances.